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MA Pro Scans
My Nightly Scans - What Is Running?
I run a set of Entry Scans daily (after Close of Trading) and collect the results in a daily spreadsheet. Not every scan will show results, therefore the size of nightly result sheets can vary from a few lines to several pages.
RTT Mickey counts the 3rd High before the last TP13. This High defines the "Trigger level". The first Close above that level triggers a watch for a retracement below the trigger level; the second break suggests an entry. For additional confirmation, I check that the 3-day EMA has crossed above EMA 8 - suggesting an up-trend.
See Ian's Mickey page for more detail.
HeadFake is explained on the website BollingeronBollingerBands.com; it looks for a narrowing of the Bollingerband to its tightest (I test over 89 days), followed by a breakout where the price touches or breaks either band. The theory suggests the first break "fakes" the opposite direction of the subsequent break-out. Check a stock's DNA whether that's happened in the past.
Price falling or rising on increasing volume is reported only after two successive days. The Analyser's standard Price and Volume changes give lots of results - that's why I developed these multiple-day P&V scans. The EMAs referred to in the legend are 3, 8, and 13 day EMAs. For reliable results, they're supposed to point in the direction of the intended trade and should have crossed to line up the right way too: for Long trades, EMA3 on top, 8 in the middle, and EMA13 the lowest. Shorts opposite.
Everybody should be familiar with Trinity, so I won't carry on about that one. There are four scans that I'm usually running: Long and Short "DNA", which tests the classic Trinity signals, but requires also increasing volume patterns; it also assigns points for line-up and direction of EMAs. Stocks that don't get enough points together, don't make the list. In addition, any doubts are reported in detail.
Long and Short "Early" give early warnings with less stringent requirements, leaving the decision to the Trader.
Also notice the difference between expressions like "suggests Short" and "suggests Expect Short". The former has found MACD's speed line has crossed zero, the latter found it crossed only the Signal (ie average speed). Volume notes refer to average over the last 5 days as compared to the 5 days before the last Accu (or Distribution) indicator.
Neither Trinity scan will attempt to "predict" a possible FTFF situation. When a signal is reported, the Trader must analyse the chart and take the necessary precautions for events like FTFF or even complete failure.
Recently, I have found that Short signals are, in the current Market conditions, less reliable than Long Signals. No surprise there. However, there is a certain symmetry in scans, and some stocks can become fairly overbought even in otherwise Bullish markets.
The usual Disclaimer: I'm neither a licensed advisor nor can I vouch for the scan results leading to profitable trades. Therefore, you should not rely on the scan results alone, but check them against your own Trading Plan before trading. And whatever you trade, the decision and responsibility for the outcome is nobody's but YOURS.
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Key Level Sheet - What's in it?
The "Key Levels" sheet is calculated daily (after Close of Trading) and displays -
the day's High and Low price,
the 5 Pivot levels based on the day's Hi, Lo, Close. For details see "PivotsY" in the Script Catalogue.
Short and Long EMAs are Closing 55 and 233-day EMAs respectively.
ATR is taken over 10 days and expressed as price and % of the current Pivot (which I consider the "typical" price)
Average Volume and Turnover are long-term averages, taken over 377 days - unless the stock is younger than that
Low and Hi TPs are the last two TP34's, calculated from Low and High price of the day;
the TP days are the respective ages. "1" marks yesterday, "5" would therefore be a week ago, etc.
The last 4 columns (24 to 27) calculate the standard Fibonacci levels over the range defined by those two TPs.
One little "tip": There are only 4 Fib levels given. If you want to know any other level - say, 127.2% - simply change one of the title cells to that number. Try the one that says "Fib50.0%", simply type in the number 127.2, and voila! The entire column will be recalculated.
The usual Disclaimer: I'm neither a licensed advisor nor can I vouch for the data tables being "correct". Therefore, you should not rely on the values in these spreadsheets alone, but check them against your own data supplies before trading. And whatever you trade, the decision and responsibility for the outcome is nobody's but YOURS.
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Open Interest Analysis
Open Interest Analysis - How Does It Work?
The OI Analyser charts the distribution of Open Interest in a stock's options. "Open Interest" is the number of contracts (covering 1,000 shares each) that have been sold at the given moment.
Under normal circumstances, Put options exceed calls in the lower range of strike prices, while Calls outnumber puts in the higher range. Why? As a Put option gives the buyer the right to sell at a given price, traders will buy Puts to hedge against the share price falling much below their buy price. If they have shorted the motherstock, they buy Calls to limit their loss in case they were wrong and the share rises well above their shorting level.
There are also traders who buy options for the sake of leverage, hoping the motherstock rises, so their Calls appreciate by a much bigger margin, or it falls when they're holding Puts.
Whatever the reason, people will usually buy options that are out of the money, hence the predominance of Puts in the lower, Calls in the higher regions.
There are other reasons why traders may buy or sell options -- therefore, any conclusion drawn from the chart must not be taken in isolation, but can underpin an opinion about the likely direction into months end when a series expires.
As a general rule, I have found that a share price tends to drift into the zone of "equilibrium", where calls and puts are about evenly distributed. Usually, this is also the zone where the total nunmber is at its peak, meaning greatest general interest.
If that is "almost" the case in the final days leading into the Expiry Date, the market forces will quite often push the motherstock's price into the middle - which is known as the "option squeeze". The buyers of calls try to push the price up, so they can exercise; the sellers of Puts push into the same direction (up), to avoid being exercised. And vice versa, buyers of Puts and sellers of Calls are interested in the motherstock going down. The closer we come to the next exercise level, the more the struggle intensifies.
If, in the leadup to Expiry, the price is "far out", it's time for particular caution:
Maybe a dividend is due just before the Expiry date? That will cause every possible Call to be exercised the day before Ex Div, so the motherstock will be priced at the higher end of the scale. Come Ex Div, the pendulum swings back to Puts being overweight, and the same traders that "Called" the stock before Ex Div, are quite likely to sell some back onto the market, pushing the price down, which enables them (if they hold Put options as well) to exercise some high-level Puts.
The two pie charts tell a supporting story, in that they show how well in-the-money and out-of-the-money options are balanced. A general equilibrium may indicate stability, but an imbalance can be a first hint at volatility to come.
All of the above is reason enough to run the program regularly and compare successive charts over time.
The usual Disclaimer: I'm neither a licensed advisor nor an options expert. Therefore, you should study the moves and check the later outcomes before trading. And whatever you trade, the decision and responsibility for the outcome is nobody's but YOURS.
A separate worksheet displays the options in question, including current day's trades, intrinsic value, and an indicator whether each option is in, at, or out of the money. Important information about current trading and dividends is also provided. If you select "All" option series, this allows an easy comparison of Options on offer, although in that case, the Chart will not be meaningful and won't be drawn. See below for an example.
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